Rays move to Orlando
10%
Real threat. Not the base case.
The move meter · Through 2032
Rays to Orlando?
Possible. Plausible. Still a long shot. Orlando has a serious bid and the Tampa deal has political risk—but Tampa remains the bigger market, the richer development play, and the priority of the Rays' new ownership.
Forecast issued Aug. 4, 2026
Any relocation
18%
Orlando or another market.
Stay in Tampa Bay
73%
Current deal or a local reset.
3:1
Bottom line
Tampa Bay is still roughly a three-to-one favorite.
The 2032 scenario board.
100% of modeled outcomes40
25
8
10
8
9
Current Dale Mabry plan40%
Revised Tampa deal25%
Local bridge / Trop extension8%
Orlando relocation10%
Another market8%
Still unresolved9%
Tampa vs. Orlando.
| Measure | Tampa | Orlando |
|---|---|---|
| Metro population | 3.419M | 2.958M |
| TV households | 2.221M | 1.902M |
| Public stadium ask | $976M | $975M |
| Development site | 113 acres | 35.5 acres |
| 2020–25 growth | +7.2% | +10.3% |
Why Tampa still leads.
- 1New ownership bought the Rays while prioritizing a Tampa-area home.
- 2Hillsborough already approved the preliminary framework, 5–2.
- 3Tampa is the larger population and television market.
- 4The 113-acre development is far more valuable to a real-estate-led ownership group.
What moves the meter.
Conditional Orlando oddsTampa approves a binding stadium deal
↓
2–3%Tampa formally kills the project
↑
20–25%Tampa dies + Orange County funds Orlando
↑↑
50–60%